Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AZ vs. Jagiellonia Białystok end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa12926ea7da125c420ab144a6db489f2ae6e7439a3ba59bbca84f8c9e6c82f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 18c | 19,166$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,716.22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 18c | 3,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 2,041$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.65 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 1,822$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.47 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,119$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 18c | 1,033$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.75 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 650.15$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.62 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 16c | 385.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.6 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 14c | 376$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.36 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 279.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.2 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 74c | 164.68$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bde9backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 72c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e05…566ebacked Yes | 73c | 75.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 71c | 69.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 18c | 62.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…a38dbacked Yes | 74c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Yes | 73c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ vs. Jagiellonia Białystok end in a draw?this page
- Will AZ win on 2025-12-18?No won
- Will Jagiellonia Białystok win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.