Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa12eb9b7deee08e3c8679ca8bd6682d3908a75cb5d9056e6c2737824b28909f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 34c | 535.21$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.99 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 66c | 308.81$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 126.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 13c | 102.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 90.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 16c | 79.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 27c | 77.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…3afebacked No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 34c | 59.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 69c | 58.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 70c | 48.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed No | 69c | 46.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 46.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…c1e3backed Yes | 30c | 34.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 71c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 66c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked No | 71c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…e3f4backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.