Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6102cd3644294518d9037ab641f6dd59e2a3806c906ffeead04ee41928ed0e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 57c | 375.4$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.35 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 330.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 23c | 233.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 57c | 219.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 198.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 188$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 78c | 185.89$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 181.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 63c | 147.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 138.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 136.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 123.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 58c | 111.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 108.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 102.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 100.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 98.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 24c | 74.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 50c | 73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 28c | 68.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 67.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 64.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 53.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 56c | 51.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 47.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 38c | 46.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 36c | 46.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 50c | 40.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 59c | 40.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 25c | 40.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed No | 78c | 40.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 38.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 35c | 38.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 32c | 33.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 42c | 30.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 61c | 24.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 69c | 24.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 61c | 23.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 60c | 23.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 57c | 22.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 49c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfe…ab86backed No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 64c | 15.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 77c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 14.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 71c | 14.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 77c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.