Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88adfdf6e56e2c2dcfff99d1ecc9e3775e0cc340c50ec0285d4ff91100aac40f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a99…e614backed No | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 893.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 441.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 7c | 410.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.27 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 4c | 409.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 15c | 290.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 219$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 11c | 217.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.86 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 181.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 23c | 159.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 144.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 119$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 115$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 91.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 44c | 82.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 13c | 79.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 40c | 76.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…3d94backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 51.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 51.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked Yes | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 43.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 32.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 79c | 28.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 76c | 22.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…66d7backed Yes | 60c | 21.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.