Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0b61a9dacf586a24ce50b3dcf3a9bb52c88bdf4240e3ff3e1349165d57fd2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8295…610cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,168$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 63c | 264.05$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 142.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 38c | 130.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 127.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked Yes | 32c | 124.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 117.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 60c | 106.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 106$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 101.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 93.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 89.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 57c | 79.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 77.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 76.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 72.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed No | 64c | 70.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 60c | 68.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 67.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…66d7backed Yes | 35c | 65.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 64.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 43c | 58.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 55.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 35c | 52.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 51.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 46c | 43.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 71c | 42.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 31c | 42.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 41.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 30c | 40.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 39.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 38.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed Yes | 48c | 33.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 31.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 31.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 56c | 30.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 37c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 41c | 29.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 62c | 28.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 39c | 27.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 45c | 26.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed No | 56c | 25.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…e3f4backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 68c | 24.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 58c | 23.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 61c | 22.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfe…ab86backed No | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes | 58c | 18.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 57c | 17.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 61c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…f5bbbacked No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 70c | 14.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.