TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,641 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8295…610cbacked Yes36c1,168$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.8742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed No63c264.05$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4831124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c142.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes38c130.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes45c127.26$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.211,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked Yes32c124.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.055158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c117.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.259,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed No60c106.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.25547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c106$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.864,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No61c101.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.454,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No64c93.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes36c89.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.393,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No57c79.94$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4786420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes39c77.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1656048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c76.6$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.169,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes26c72.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.925,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f05…9b05backed No64c70.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.593727%10 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes29c69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.089728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No60c68.04$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3449854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No70c67.47$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.152,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…66d7backed Yes35c65.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+46.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No64c64.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.042,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes43c58.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No59c55.36$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.671,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes35c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1543430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes38c53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1463538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes35c52.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1930664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes28c51.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.371,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.524442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1579040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3411038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.819052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9df…9571backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621173.5%155 W · 56 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516627.7%46 W · 120 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes46c43.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2e…e75ebacked No71c42.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.174271.4%30 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes31c42.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.335742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c41.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe7f…7428backed Yes30c40.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.158123.5%19 W · 62 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184731.9%15 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6341…c64dbacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.83053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No59c39.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.222,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes42c39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes37c39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.434228.6%12 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes41c38.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.847,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No68c38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3338758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No60c37.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeda…d080backed Yes48c33.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No60c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.243859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.223,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c31.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes35c31.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No56c30.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.121,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes37c30.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1268645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.215,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…931cbacked No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.98067.5%54 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes41c29.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.156543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No62c28.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8393837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No54c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.881,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes39c27.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.813340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…90d9backed Yes45c26.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125865.5%38 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed No56c25.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.062744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84aa…e3f4backed No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7727769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.253,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed No68c24.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8623845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes42c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0817644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No58c23.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7139157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked No61c22.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8513160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbfe…ab86backed No59c22.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.03875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No58c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3151553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1223362.2%145 W · 88 L+33.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes58c18.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No57c17.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5939159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f1…c062backed No61c16.82$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5612057.5%69 W · 51 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec4…ce94backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.93256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e6…f5bbbacked No68c14.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe32a…a7f9backed No70c14.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.494564.4%29 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.