Spread: Howard Bison (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa141f26bc90dd46eb2206fb0b45beca87d07af307e1765b566bd4fbf11e4859a

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Howard Bisonof Howard Bison, Delaware State Hornets
Resolved: Jan 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $731,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $731,518

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $731,202 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Howard Bison	50c	727,994$363,946 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364,047.08	359	45.1%162 W · 197 L	-24.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Delaware State Hornets	50c	299,995$149,998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149,997.5	96	52.1%50 W · 46 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Delaware State Hornets	50c	200,000$100,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100,000	90	50%45 W · 45 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Delaware State Hornets	50c	149,547$74,774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74,773.57	691	42.8%296 W · 395 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Delaware State Hornets	50c	40,000$20,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,000	136	49.3%67 W · 69 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9c…74b3backed Delaware State Hornets	50c	12,345$6,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,172.5	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-3.3wins	-0.30per pick	48cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Delaware State Hornets	50c	12,222$6,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,111	131	54.2%71 W · 60 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Delaware State Hornets	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	422	46.2%195 W · 227 L	-9.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Delaware State Hornets	50c	4,747$2,374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,373.68	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Delaware State Hornets	53c	1,758$932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$932	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Delaware State Hornets	51c	525.58$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.48	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Delaware State Hornets	52c	523.45$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.56	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x628e…1d80backed Delaware State Hornets	53c	304.51$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.39	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Delaware State Hornets	51c	220$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.4	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Delaware State Hornets	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	267	40.8%109 W · 158 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc20d…b58bbacked Delaware State Hornets	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Delaware State Hornets	53c	184.34$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.7	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Howard Bison	49c	153.06$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.06	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Delaware State Hornets	51c	141.37$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.05	180	46.7%84 W · 96 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Delaware State Hornets	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	90	56.7%51 W · 39 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1da9…68a6backed Delaware State Hornets	52c	110.49$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Delaware State Hornets	51c	97.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.66	186	46.2%86 W · 100 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Delaware State Hornets	51c	94.28$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.08	158	44.3%70 W · 88 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Howard Bison	47c	90$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.7	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	+15.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Howard Bison	48c	81.45$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.23	1,124	46.4%521 W · 603 L	-25.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Howard Bison	46c	54.35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.35	188	44.7%84 W · 104 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Delaware State Hornets	54c	46.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.74	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38db…d245backed Delaware State Hornets	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.8wins	-0.31per pick	53cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe33c…6006backed Delaware State Hornets	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Delaware State Hornets	51c	26.48$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Delaware State Hornets	51c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	573	35.6%204 W · 369 L	-27.3wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Delaware State Hornets	53c	22.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	122	45.9%56 W · 66 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Howard Bison	56c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Delaware State Hornets	51c	21.7$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	78	44.9%35 W · 43 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Howard Bison (-9.5)this page
Delaware State Hornets vs. Howard BisonHoward Bison won
Delaware State Hornets vs. Howard Bison: O/U 131.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Howard Bison (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event