Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1535bf27ffa79855a901bca8af487a3883bb2cde2ee57ae145cde63d2f88ef7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 36c | 500$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.45 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 61c | 383.47$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 273.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 273$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 80c | 221.42$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 207.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 8c | 200.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 199.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 194.65$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 76c | 193.32$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 183.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 152.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 74c | 146.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 141.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 136.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 129.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 73c | 121.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 29c | 115$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 90.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 87.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 83.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 19c | 75.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 72.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 37c | 71.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 62.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a50cbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 33c | 53.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 50.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 48.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 42c | 42.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 56c | 41.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 39.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 37c | 35.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 64c | 34.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 34.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 41c | 34.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 56c | 31.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 31.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed No | 56c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…3007backed No | 57c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 61c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 17.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 57c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.