TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,482 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3bc8…f140backed No67c688.04$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c461.03$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.82,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No27c411.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1886847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes37c400.54$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.5425933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes63c398.1$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.0613448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c383.45$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.055,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked No49c381.1$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4114752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c315.21$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No9c281.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.954,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No68c265.28$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.011,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c258.21$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.78,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No21c252.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3295852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No58c239.63$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes48c229.65$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.476,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.149646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes42c187.47$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.471,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9af…7722backed Yes39c186.65$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.824228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes44c181.59$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.194,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No65c178.25$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8624546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No60c176.97$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1073,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes23c168.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.951,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes43c149.76$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7624942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c144.58$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes35c138.55$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.062,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f70…133ebacked No54c129.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.244161%25 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c125.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.162,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes32c121.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.41,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes36c117$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed Yes40c115.6$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4121264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c109.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes45c103.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.471,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No40c95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.264,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No12c93.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4366543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No61c88.61$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0529345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec34…b109backed No38c86.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.593240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c84$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.055,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c82.79$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.953,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No76c68.57$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1128455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes49c67.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.534,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No57c65.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.774,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.463255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No30c55.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4213337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes26c55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.790734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde17…e06fbacked No68c53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.043641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.527852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No66c49.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9960550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b7…cdb7backed No77c49.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.453357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.363,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes39c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes41c44.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2216440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes46c43.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0944536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No62c43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.662,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes65c42.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.015,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes68c42.88$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.786,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No52c42.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0365353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes38c41.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5454547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes51c40.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.734,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c39.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c39.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.914,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No62c37.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5522849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No60c37.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5817633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes48c32.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8855954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No69c31.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.561,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.916065.6%105 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.391,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f23…441fbacked Yes40c29.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.861540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a0…e45ebacked No62c28.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.552548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No69c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3264167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No60c27.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.911,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No49c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7419052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2254…e6e5backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes45c22.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4458138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes55c21.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.99545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.352,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd774…0f87backed No61c18.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.552035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27cb…3007backed No62c17.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No59c17.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3564…c4cebacked No63c16.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.562171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No62c16.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2394066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7274…c205backed Yes68c15.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.821361%130 W · 83 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.051,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No68c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a5…437ebacked No77c13.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.