World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Party win 5+ seats in Alberta?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15cb4a50d8df64de25cf2b9351b2481b7221ea75eeeccd1642b0b4d40f51f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31e2…a1dbbacked No | 46c | 45,021$20,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,311.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…66e5backed Yes | 54c | 45,021$24,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,311.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…c317backed No | 45c | 39,528$17,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,740.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…fb41backed Yes | 55c | 39,528$21,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,740.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed Yes | 40c | 1,444$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked No | 48c | 940.43$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.02 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 52c | 813$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.26 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed No | 60c | 780.56$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 40c | 550$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.95 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 52c | 415.56$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.59 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 59c | 345$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 52c | 272.04$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 53c | 240$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed No | 57c | 231.31$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3f…5d43backed No | 49c | 203.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…c480backed No | 44c | 198.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 180$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 53c | 140.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 48c | 98.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 75.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 48c | 68.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 55c | 45.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -65%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…3356backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…48cbbacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…b9c4backed No | 72c | 44.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 54c | 32.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.