Tennis · resolved market
Tigre: Franco Roncadelli vs Gonzalo Bueno
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa161c4a0d3811e9c2c9833c32c93b389394d6279e8cf2378c03ea920e5e4f117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buenoof Roncadelli, Bueno
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Roncadelli | 40c | 4,683$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.87 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bueno | 59c | 3,960$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.78 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bueno | 67c | 2,412$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.19 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Roncadelli | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Roncadelli | 23c | 625.34$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.51 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Roncadelli | 14c | 301.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Roncadelli | 26c | 278$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Roncadelli | 12c | 196.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 930 | 48.8%454 W · 476 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Bueno | 78c | 178.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Roncadelli | 49c | 122.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Roncadelli | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Roncadelli | 17c | 95.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Roncadelli | 25c | 76.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Bueno | 51c | 76.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Roncadelli | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Roncadelli | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Roncadelli | 33c | 47.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Roncadelli | 41c | 42.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Bueno | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Bueno | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9b98backed Roncadelli | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Bueno | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Bueno | 68c | 28.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…d240backed Bueno | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed Bueno | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…dac7backed Bueno | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…1390backed Bueno | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Bueno | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked Bueno | 66c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bueno | 78c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.