Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa172526f6c0edad598a19d54339a73e771e97726398cc690c032d301ef90e18d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 31c | 414.4$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.38 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 69c | 410.58$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 20c | 351.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.74 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 73c | 327.08$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 42c | 286.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 57c | 265.89$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.56 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 29c | 258.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.51 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 35c | 247.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.32 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 46c | 220.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 184.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 24c | 145.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 144.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.81 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 140.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 121.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 105.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 28c | 92.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 17c | 85.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 81.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 78.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 43c | 71.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 68c | 69.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 52c | 64.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 70c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 61.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 24c | 57.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 70c | 55.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 54.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 47c | 46.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 28c | 46.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 43c | 40.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 80c | 37.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…b3ebbacked No | 71c | 35.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 42c | 31.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf3…b74abacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 36c | 29.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 28.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 23.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 71c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 73c | 19.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 18.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Yes | 65c | 16.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.