Tennis · resolved market
Transylvania Open, Qualification: Aliona Bolsova vs Varvara Lepchenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa172742061d67bc21b6b4145999cb15304cef53daa5ff87e9f2a8901d65a994d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bolsovaof Bolsova, Lepchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bolsova | 61c | 3,277$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.22 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Lepchenko | 39c | 2,656$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.19 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…3ad0backed Lepchenko | 37c | 2,448$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bolsova | 67c | 2,216$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.69 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Bolsova | 39c | 1,713$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.57 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Bolsova | 39c | 1,253$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.63 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Lepchenko | 43c | 1,036$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.56 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lepchenko | 54c | 955.39$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.95 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bolsova | 53c | 909.62$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.12 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Lepchenko | 60c | 777$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.69 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Lepchenko | 48c | 610$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.26 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…9c6cbacked Bolsova | 65c | 601.37$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.48 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Bolsova | 37c | 555$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.65 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Lepchenko | 35c | 554.72$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 519 | 33.1%172 W · 347 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bolsova | 34c | 463.18$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.7 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Lepchenko | 47c | 395$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.6 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Lepchenko | 57c | 384$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.93 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Bolsova | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…540bbacked Bolsova | 51c | 294.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Bolsova | 39c | 293.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.08 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Lepchenko | 31c | 278.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Bolsova | 58c | 243.57$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Lepchenko | 60c | 230$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bolsova | 71c | 223$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Lepchenko | 7c | 214.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…e43bbacked Lepchenko | 49c | 201.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Lepchenko | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Lepchenko | 24c | 182.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Bolsova | 35c | 130.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Lepchenko | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd891…7341backed Lepchenko | 61c | 107.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Lepchenko | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Lepchenko | 66c | 90.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,671 | 53%885 W · 786 L | +44.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Bolsova | 53c | 73.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc442…b7e5backed Bolsova | 35c | 54.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bolsova | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bolsova | 72c | 47.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…00a4backed Lepchenko | 30c | 44.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Bolsova | 44c | 34.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 275 | 43.3%119 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bolsova | 36c | 33.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…772abacked Bolsova | 61c | 32.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Lepchenko | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Bolsova | 57c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…f00dbacked Lepchenko | 57c | 26.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Transylvania Open, Qualification: Aliona Bolsova vs Varvara Lepchenkothis page
- Bolsova vs. Lepchenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.