Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa177aa9256b7d4ce0dae2b616816b92962adfcd25f6706258986e319727996d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 24c | 663.49$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.94 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 357.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.39 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 355.64$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 343.54$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 291.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 257.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.73 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 198.84$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 133$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 124.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 10c | 123.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 106.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 104.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 34c | 104$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 40c | 102.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 100.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 63c | 99.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 90.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 76.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 75.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 61.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 60.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 61c | 51.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 64c | 46.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 45.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 43.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 64c | 42.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 40.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 49c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x893f…cfbcbacked Yes | 52c | 36.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 69c | 34.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…5b16backed Yes | 35c | 33.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 38c | 32.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 39c | 27.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 26.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 24.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.