MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1999028b925957847d686f178b7b7367b3af2fd9fe3355f88c3af68ac3f4aac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 56c | 15,114$8,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,650.19 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 39c | 7,239$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 4,509$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 4,048$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6285…3f5abacked Under | 39c | 2,564$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.41 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -70%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 1c | 2,315$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 1,717$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 20c | 1,046$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.46 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 44c | 303$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 51c | 260.9$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.06 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 6c | 167.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 22c | 131.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 19c | 119.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 75c | 90.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 50c | 47.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 55c | 43.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 48c | 40.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 56c | 39.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 46c | 21.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 62c | 16.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 74c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.