MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43f0dfc0dab452d2216af1e338fad1cf2c1d14816a85eeb28138d0f1b58fe9f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 52c | 98,437$51,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,168.6 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 48c | 41,500$19,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,920 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 48c | 20,621$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 20,260$9,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,724.8 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 6,005$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,882.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 5,896$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 5,806$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 51c | 3,371$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.71 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 2,774$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.55 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 28c | 2,403$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.87 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 2,307$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 28c | 2,176$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 1,946$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 52c | 827.56$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 813.11$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 800$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 744.9$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 51c | 711.37$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.95 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 47c | 639.97$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.78 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 525.38$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 505.19$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.44 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 433.96$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.3 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 414.21$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 15c | 381.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 362.44$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 326.58$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.09 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 283.02$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 19c | 249.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 9c | 209.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 48c | 191.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 190.91$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 56c | 166.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 28c | 166$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 91.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 28c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Over | 48c | 50.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 59c | 42.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 59c | 42.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 59c | 42.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 37c | 28.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 43c | 27.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 22.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 58c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 75c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.