MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38d6f6f739254267b9bad88c96b864d99da280125f8990c6ba366f205e6ad800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 42c | 80,813$34,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,120.55 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 30,915$17,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,079.36 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 58c | 15,000$8,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,300 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 8,249$4,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,464.49 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 7,383$4,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,175.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 5,740$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.96 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 5,163$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.68 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 55c | 3,623$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.47 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 56c | 2,526$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.7 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 58c | 1,832$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.57 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,778$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.79 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 1,376$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.17 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 1,201$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.18 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 58c | 1,028$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.21 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 58c | 905$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.1 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 895.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 58c | 822.18$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.95 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 41c | 800$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 728.56$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.51 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 43c | 533.94$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 501.55$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.12 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Under | 42c | 476$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 58c | 442$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 58c | 386.06$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.94 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 57c | 331.4$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.13 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 310.42$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 300$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.33 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 296.95$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 288$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 58c | 253.27$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 247.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 213.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 57c | 175.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 46c | 125.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 40c | 77.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 64c | 74.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…f4ddbacked Under | 70c | 64.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 61.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 55c | 59.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 47c | 53.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 29c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b7…fd93backed Over | 53c | 47.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1539…7598backed Over | 61c | 42.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 38.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 55c | 37.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Under | 47c | 37.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Under | 43c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 51c | 31.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 47c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 46c | 26.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 48c | 25.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 51c | 24.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 59c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 321 | 53.9%173 W · 148 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.