MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63029dc019205a28452d6649ba40d65e70cf8009a935d46784fe5affa7802376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 4,000$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.5 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 3,747$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.68 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 32c | 3,084$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.95 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 2,229$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.25 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 1,725$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.98 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 1,314$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 724.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 648.23$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.58 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 601.4$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.21 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 281.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Minnesota Twins | 26c | 222.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 32c | 174$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 147$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 119.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 119.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 112.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 91.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 90.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 87.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 73.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 58.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…e8bcbacked Minnesota Twins | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 48.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 44.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 37.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 33.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 31.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 29.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.