UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Borralho and Ruffy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1ad68f152cbc0bd04abd2166eed4f4c6696e584abff0719d0f1ce6d4fdc0abe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed No | 68c | 1,210$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.3 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 64c | 1,139$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.28 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…eb73backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…1bafbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 36c | 261.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 62c | 242.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed No | 68c | 219.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…2a3ebacked Yes | 37c | 192.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…9142backed Yes | 36c | 173.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 165.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Yes | 36c | 158.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 39c | 117.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 34c | 109.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3a…28dcbacked Yes | 38c | 107.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 33c | 104.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…f4f1backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 62c | 66.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…6cd5backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…3e3fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…49b4backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2b…ca6fbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 33c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…89dbbacked Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…5f22backed No | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Borralho and Ruffy this page
- UFC Fight Night: Borralho and JonesNo won
- UFC Fight Night: Borralho and Saint Denis No won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and BukauskasYes won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Jones Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Oki No won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Ruffy No won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Saint Denis Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.