UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Ruffy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9def00b2978c6990a34fbb63b26d49d95a1a06c1f5f8bebfc2e60344b0e62b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 67c | 1,899$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.24 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…1bafbacked Yes | 33c | 597.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 68c | 506.5$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed No | 71c | 299.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Yes | 34c | 192.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 28c | 152.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Yes | 31c | 129.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yes | 32c | 102.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 69c | 101.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2665…70a4backed Yes | 26c | 92.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…ee73backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Yes | 38c | 79.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…dd87backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed No | 70c | 68.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6150…d3dfbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Ruffy this page
- UFC Fight Night: Borralho and JonesNo won
- UFC Fight Night: Borralho and Ruffy No won
- UFC Fight Night: Borralho and Saint Denis No won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and BukauskasYes won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Jones Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Oki No won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Saint Denis Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.