UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Saint Denis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48ee0d275d998d70d4758f112541960c6d1e6dec63daaa8c5bb141073f9d25d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 78c | 1,474$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.51 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 23c | 878.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +202.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 79c | 670.89$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 21c | 670.89$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Yes | 19c | 522.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Yes | 19c | 444.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.76 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…4b16backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed Yes | 22c | 122.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 15c | 90.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…8743backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e7…4bf4backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…86a5backed Yes | 19c | 57.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Saint Denis this page
- UFC Fight Night: Borralho and JonesNo won
- UFC Fight Night: Borralho and Ruffy No won
- UFC Fight Night: Borralho and Saint Denis No won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and BukauskasYes won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Jones Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Oki No won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov and Ruffy No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.