Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Dusan Lajovic vs Facundo Acosta
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d7945f48440433e2b341fa13e5596f845465e7c051a3e029bd5e5ac937daae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lajovicof Lajovic, Acosta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Acosta | 6c | 8,809$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.72 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Acosta | 2c | 3,716$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Lajovic | 56c | 3,696$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.08 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Acosta | 1c | 3,600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Acosta | 33c | 2,413$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.43 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Acosta | 27c | 1,272$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.34 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lajovic | 41c | 919.98$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.45 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Acosta | 61c | 821.43$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.49 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Lajovic | 50c | 663.69$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.31 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Acosta | 49c | 472.34$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.31 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Lajovic | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Acosta | 17c | 420.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lajovic | 73c | 402.2$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Acosta | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Lajovic | 60c | 166.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Acosta | 43c | 161.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Lajovic | 66c | 155.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Acosta | 49c | 148.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Acosta | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Acosta | 16c | 125.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Acosta | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…a923backed Lajovic | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Lajovic | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Lajovic | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Lajovic | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Acosta | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Acosta | 57c | 88.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…786ebacked Lajovic | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Acosta | 35c | 57.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Lajovic | 54c | 45.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Lajovic | 53c | 42.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Acosta | 52c | 36.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d35…8518backed Acosta | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b8…b679backed Acosta | 71c | 34.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Acosta | 36c | 33.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7df…809bbacked Lajovic | 76c | 31.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafcb…19b1backed Acosta | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…b96bbacked Lajovic | 35c | 28.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…54ccbacked Acosta | 49c | 24.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8291backed Acosta | 66c | 22.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Lajovic | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Lajovic | 59c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…39ddbacked Acosta | 53c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.