South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1e211b2b4e4355d63b2ac52bbd2092850ee4dc745a1ac688963198c984bb679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,125 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8edf…7eadbacked Under | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 379.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.36 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 42c | 333.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.18 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 9c | 312.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…5f66backed Under | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +485.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…8e34backed Under | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 269.77$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 67c | 162.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Under | 80c | 156.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 146$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 24c | 143.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 67c | 138.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 20c | 119.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 119.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Over | 43c | 111.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 21c | 110.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Under | 79c | 110.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd16…6667backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Under | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 30c | 84.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a0…75bdbacked Over | 60c | 83.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 73c | 79.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 55c | 78.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 74c | 73.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 26c | 65.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 79c | 59.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 54.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 42c | 47.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 73c | 40.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Under | 41c | 28.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.