TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

John Collins: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,664 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,512$19 inLost-$18.711,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf226…9c0fbacked Yes1c2,505$25 inLost-$255836.2%21 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No66c599.99$396 inWon+$203.9965762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Yes34c294.12$100 inLost-$1009245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…5914backed Yes34c237.18$81 inLost-$80.6450%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes33c79.18$26 inLost-$26.033528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8844…b7e5backed Yes34c50$17 inLost-$171735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No61c49.99$30 inWon+$19.522774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No65c49.99$32 inWon+$17.521672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Yes39c40.15$16 inLost-$15.661315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-54.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.