Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa20d861babf08ba13c80f11ffcf9bb7d15f17278261d4b09104fbadc5dd89b86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 35c | 1,924$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.15 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 76c | 946.18$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 25c | 550.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked Yes | 45c | 444.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 65c | 284.46$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.09 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Yes | 68c | 281$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…eb62backed Yes | 8c | 244.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…cda6backed Yes | 9c | 161.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…914fbacked Yes | 45c | 138.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 104.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…a64fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 96.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 75c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…de58backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 47c | 48.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…a728backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 38.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…f1bebacked Yes | 54c | 19.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 58c | 18.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed Yes | 76c | 15.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd025…158ebacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)this page
- Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
- Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)Yes won
- Will "Simon Cowell: The Next Act" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.