Movies · resolved market
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10713e32f0edd33006b35b58fc9da15d16df183fa88744ecb7f929bc5278ef5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0fe…771cbacked No | 39c | 2,593$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 41c | 1,458$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…00f8backed Yes | 80c | 452.04$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 42c | 409.89$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.83 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 33c | 209.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.61 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…e29fbacked Yes | 51c | 192.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 71c | 155$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 60c | 140.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 20c | 104.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 29c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 58c | 86.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 72.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed No | 71c | 63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 44c | 56.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 49c | 55.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…4f39backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…de58backed No | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 57c | 20.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f7…f224backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…cda6backed Yes | 59c | 17.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)this page
- Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
- Will "Simon Cowell: The Next Act" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.