Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa216444d6e76be4235e9978ed3b99b3b6dc2f6d7399b42b3db84b3156decf3c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hikaru Satoof Hikaru Sato, Kayo Nishimura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kayo Nishimura | 10c | 2,618$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.55 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kayo Nishimura | 5c | 1,738$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Kayo Nishimura | 2c | 602.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Kayo Nishimura | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Kayo Nishimura | 17c | 359.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hikaru Sato | 78c | 347.34$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Sato | 78c | 276.64$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Kayo Nishimura | 31c | 255.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Hikaru Sato | 66c | 191.73$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Kayo Nishimura | 34c | 185.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Hikaru Sato | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kayo Nishimura | 8c | 137.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kayo Nishimura | 18c | 136.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Kayo Nishimura | 24c | 124.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Kayo Nishimura | 9c | 118.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Kayo Nishimura | 21c | 110.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Kayo Nishimura | 22c | 87.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Kayo Nishimura | 21c | 83.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…dfcfbacked Hikaru Sato | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 258 | 58.1%150 W · 108 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Kayo Nishimura | 28c | 53.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…3be3backed Hikaru Sato | 71c | 43.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…b743backed Hikaru Sato | 64c | 38.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Hikaru Sato | 66c | 21.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 516 | 44.8%231 W · 285 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…17c4backed Hikaru Sato | 68c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.