Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2224e8554e05ef4475bb3aa9116ebb037f14ae0f3088ad75de0d4db7de84e4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 475.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 351.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 300.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 254.53$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 231.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 13c | 213.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked Yes | 31c | 211.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 209.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 5c | 203.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 76c | 186.06$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 12c | 171.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 17c | 166.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 28c | 150.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 10c | 123.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 10c | 115.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 18c | 108.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 19c | 106.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 18c | 106.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 24c | 92.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 84.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 14c | 70.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 26c | 69.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 19c | 68.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 68.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 80c | 66.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 56.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 55.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 55.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 28c | 53.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed No | 74c | 51.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 20c | 49.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 22c | 45.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 41.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 37.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.