Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0f44f40194026d5607190eae21de58e765688c670e92c7a8a02384ed54f1452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 41c | 1,150$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.64 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed No | 54c | 319.67$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 305.45$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 79c | 254.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 200.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 197.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 179.39$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 30c | 149.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 41c | 122.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…7aecbacked Yes | 33c | 106.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…59e1backed Yes | 44c | 99.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 39c | 84.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 83.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 83.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 80.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 58c | 74.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 22c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 62c | 68.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed Yes | 33c | 60.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 77c | 51.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 48.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 57c | 38.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 59c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf72f…6a8abacked Yes | 32c | 33.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed No | 67c | 32.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 35c | 31.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 29.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 26.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 26.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a54…4a03backed Yes | 48c | 26.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…9e38backed No | 68c | 24.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 23.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 58c | 22.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 65c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 61c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.