Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa22faa38f7877f7ec4b9260ecaeccbe9761a9848c6e9edd9a5a4ce423565f0c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 532.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 76c | 277.06$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 257.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 212$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 198.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.18 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 181.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 10c | 175.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 168.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 77c | 165.89$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 131.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 36c | 91.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 51c | 87.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 44c | 80.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 60c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 20c | 78.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 21c | 75.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 62.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 79c | 61.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 61c | 59.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked Yes | 26c | 58.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 55.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 33c | 53.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 24c | 49.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 69c | 46.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 71c | 41.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 76c | 39.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 38.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 27c | 38.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 40c | 35.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 56c | 34.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 53c | 33.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 43c | 31.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec24…8adabacked Yes | 65c | 30.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…daefbacked No | 58c | 30.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 46c | 30.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 29.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 78c | 25.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 58c | 23.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 21.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…f172backed Yes | 70c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd736…ba5dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 15.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.