MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa24a1e3fbd929e2281d139cdb63100688f9fa2eeabefa4f6983ee3bdbd6b97b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 9,657$6,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,368.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 5,277$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,482.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 2,125$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.95 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 1,911$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 812.32$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.94 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 700$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 603.01$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.59 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 492.8$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.32 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 333.11$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.89 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Detroit Tigers | 47c | 213$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 185.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 162.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 142.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Detroit Tigers | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 109.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 108$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18e…706dbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 105.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 60.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 57.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 56.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 54.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…516bbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 45.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 40.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 39.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Detroit Tigers | 56c | 31.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 31.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 31.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 26.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 25.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 21.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.