NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Hawks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa25f7f3ed05644f54246080d5cdb1276a96fd7f5194de1e644c2a588310fde67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c0c…213abacked Hawks | 47c | 203$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…a9aebacked Hawks | 47c | 203$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe0…8348backed Hawks | 47c | 201$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…3975backed Hawks | 47c | 198$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…5a9abacked Jazz | 53c | 196$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…5efcbacked Hawks | 48c | 194$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…0293backed Jazz | 53c | 192$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…232fbacked Jazz | 53c | 191$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…815cbacked Jazz | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…8617backed Jazz | 52c | 181$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…10c4backed Hawks | 48c | 173$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…a7bbbacked Jazz | 52c | 164$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hawks | 45c | 27.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-0.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. JazzHawks won
- Hawks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.