NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e632b3df3e82f9f2d0138f9af0f36ed607e4544ce8c75b3001e64a0385412e2

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $83,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,546 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Over	50c	43,112$21,718 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,393.54	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	31,449$15,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,120.71	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc933…5366backed Under	51c	15,000$7,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,650	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Over	53c	14,753$7,819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,934	127	40.2%51 W · 76 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	49c	9,814$4,809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,808.97	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over	52c	6,855$3,585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,270.11	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+12.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Under	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	50c	4,642$2,321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,321	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	48c	4,421$2,138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,138.14	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,040	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	51c	1,544$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.63	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	51c	1,462$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	47c	1,112$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.56	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	47c	1,008$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.76	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under	48c	833.33$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	724	50.7%367 W · 357 L	+13.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	51c	780.69$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.69	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Under	50c	688$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under	51c	564$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.82	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x890a…093cbacked Under	50c	414$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	48c	400$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Over	53c	304$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.8	163	46.6%76 W · 87 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	48c	302.9$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.39	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	48c	299.99$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Under	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	315	38.1%120 W · 195 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Under	45c	104$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53f…b4c8backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8658…41c6backed Over	49c	81.63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.63	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Over	53c	80.19$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.69	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.16per pick	63cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7eb7…8d07backed Over	52c	77.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.43	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	52c	48.2$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.14	60	50%30 W · 30 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	48.2$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.14	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8211…8981backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	49cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91b5…49d5backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	18	83.3%15 W · 3 L	+3.5wins	+0.19per pick	64cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event