NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x026878ea8ad47626d00378fc509f6d9394789a9c4de69d523e081592f0b85da6

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Hawks, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,201

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,137 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x43d4…13a2backed Jazz	51c	8,908$4,540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,539.93	127	40.2%51 W · 76 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz	49c	8,565$4,237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,236.61	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks	50c	7,891$3,962 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,928.95	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks	49c	6,916$3,408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,508.44	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Jazz	49c	3,193$1,565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,564.73	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hawks	51c	2,450$1,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200.5	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6043…84afbacked Jazz	51c	2,100$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071.14	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks	49c	1,562$770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$792.22	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hawks	49c	1,140$559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.54	724	50.7%367 W · 357 L	+13.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9844…5e6cbacked Hawks	53c	940$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440.4	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-3.5wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hawks	49c	727.29$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$373.39	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks	53c	700.31$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.72	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Jazz	48c	592.31$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.31	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…4741backed Hawks	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	60	65%39 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd509…b06abacked Jazz	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Hawks	49c	336.96$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.85	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5dd…490bbacked Hawks	55c	272.73$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.73	126	54.8%69 W · 57 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf36f…fb15backed Hawks	52c	209.62$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.62	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7ae…5fdebacked Jazz	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8835…7d7ebacked Hawks	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Jazz	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Hawks	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Jazz	47c	149.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.5	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Hawks	50c	143.04$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.52	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe80…e0a6backed Hawks	51c	137.25$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.25	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8749…bc74backed Hawks	55c	128.36$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.76	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hawks	53c	113$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.11	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Jazz	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Jazz	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa747…28cebacked Hawks	55c	96.66$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.12	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Jazz	47c	77.71$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.52	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Jazz	48c	75$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Hawks	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	112	51.8%58 W · 54 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Hawks	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	102	53.9%55 W · 47 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Hawks	48c	55$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.6	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Jazz	44c	51.48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.65	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hawks	29c	50$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.5	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	45c	47.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.41	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Jazz	52c	47.05$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	327	43.4%142 W · 185 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Jazz	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	187	42.8%80 W · 107 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Jazz	71c	40$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	353	52.4%185 W · 168 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Jazz	46c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	158	38.6%61 W · 97 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Jazz	48c	38.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Jazz	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Hawks	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event