World Politics · resolved market
Poilievre resigns as leader of Conservatives by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa27dd35a0dfb7aa41d67c7fcb2c53bcf0c0ae2bf01ea20685d04944c6affcf34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 5c | 10,711$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.27 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…0584backed Yes | 2c | 2,801$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,314$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 2,084$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 11c | 1,815$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.81 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…a601backed Yes | 2c | 1,185$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…1c77backed Yes | 9c | 992.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…c527backed Yes | 1c | 941.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 853.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…3299backed Yes | 6c | 804.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 774.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 3c | 666.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 379$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 4c | 366.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 345.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…bfe3backed Yes | 7c | 269.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 8c | 241.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 6c | 222$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 16c | 193.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…e6aebacked Yes | 14c | 148.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 8c | 142$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 10c | 129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 10c | 124$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 10c | 117.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 21c | 71.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64dd…7995backed Yes | 65c | 19.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.