Mls · resolved market
Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa29e1f82012ff223df8abb06d40ef6e383103a6d3716b7c9919c15b6373d3733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York City FCof New York City FC, Colorado Rapids SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,262 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked New York City FC | 39c | 2,269$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.89 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 784.16$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.37 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 700$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Colorado Rapids SC | 24c | 501.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 473$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.53 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York City FC | 76c | 459.05$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed New York City FC | 38c | 212.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.6 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 65.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed New York City FC | 41c | 60.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed New York City FC | 56c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 50.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -9.8wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked New York City FC | 76c | 31.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 30.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Colorado Rapids SC | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 64c | 28.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked New York City FC | 76c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Colorado Rapids SC | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Colorado Rapids SC | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4729…8cfdbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)this page
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.