Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa92159ecbad790b91c240ba42f55e61680adc0f066a5a6436f4806fdbb4905f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,296 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 33c | 756.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.81 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 660.31$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 500.51$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.08 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 32c | 500$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 450.17$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.16 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…9a2bbacked Over | 24c | 296.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…58cebacked Under | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…3345backed Under | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…9900backed Over | 24c | 296.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 68c | 182.2$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 18c | 163.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 24c | 156.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 78c | 149$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 19c | 130.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 120.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 19c | 89.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…4befbacked Over | 23c | 85.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 18c | 83.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 30c | 79.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 67c | 28.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Under | 68c | 24.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5this page
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.