Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 164.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2e07944089e20cedc172571c51429457d099aeb9f640327f59061ae88567e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,341 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 50c | 6,406$3,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,210.53 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 50c | 5,411$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.47 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,251$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.21 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 52c | 799.98$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.99 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…3858backed Under | 48c | 516.28$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.47 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 48c | 497.81$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.86 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 61c | 465.89$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.75 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 49c | 285.24$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.46 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 277.8$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 58c | 191.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 53c | 187.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 48c | 149.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…2b9dbacked Over | 62c | 148.03$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 44c | 134.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 53c | 122.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…41d1backed Over | 53c | 118.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 54c | 110.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 104.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Over | 49c | 104.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 91.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 66.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 45c | 65.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 63.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 52c | 59.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -10.2wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 53.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Over | 47c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Over | 53c | 36.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…2e70backed Over | 53c | 33.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 50c | 29.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Over | 50c | 25.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 45c | 23.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 59c | 22.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…fecfbacked Over | 53c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Over | 53c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 164.5this page
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-2.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-3.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-1.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-2.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-3.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 165.5Under won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 166.5Under won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 167.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.