Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8c84aea339a4fe250ea22660a833bb280b0f94601c22bf30f3ff7dd586e40c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Razorbacksof Vanderbilt Commodores, Arkansas Razorbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,462 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 49c | 36,304$17,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,925.97 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 19,688$9,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,844.1 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 3,823$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.24 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 3,106$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.74 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 2,410$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.63 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…9fa9backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 49c | 2,023$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 2,018$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.85 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 1,944$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.38 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 1,819$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.35 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 1,803$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.23 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 47c | 1,352$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.57 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 48c | 651.6$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.77 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 73c | 606.05$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.03 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 571.96$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.54 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 571.88$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 354.88$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.58 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 26c | 303.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 284.37$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 51c | 281.83$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.73 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…e1a5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 228.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 215.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 46c | 212.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 190.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ac…b988backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 168.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 156.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 155.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 79c | 126.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 42c | 113.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…fecfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 109.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…2e70backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 87.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 78.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 77.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 76.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 49c | 70.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 66.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 64.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…954ebacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 48c | 61.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 59.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 58c | 56.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 38c | 52.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 43.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 49c | 42.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 38.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…a99dbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 48c | 37.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 36.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 45c | 34.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 33.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…b415backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 29.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…19f8backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 48c | 29.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 70c | 29.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 29.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 29.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x978f…e14dbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 48c | 21.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…c458backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 50c | 21.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-2.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-3.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-1.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-3.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 164.5Under won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 165.5Under won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 166.5Under won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 167.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.