TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arkansas Razorbacksof Vanderbilt Commodores, Arkansas Razorbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,462 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb2f…eca9backed Vanderbilt Commodores49c36,304$17,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,925.9711652.6%61 W · 55 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Arkansas Razorbacks50c19,688$9,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,844.11,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c3,823$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.2412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c3,106$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.741,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Arkansas Razorbacks52c2,410$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.6392246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35cd…9fa9backed Vanderbilt Commodores49c2,023$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c2,018$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.852,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c1,944$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.3857248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks52c1,819$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.3548855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Arkansas Razorbacks51c1,803$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.231,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Vanderbilt Commodores47c1,352$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.574146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Vanderbilt Commodores48c651.6$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.7739454.6%215 W · 179 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arkansas Razorbacks73c606.05$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.031,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Arkansas Razorbacks52c571.96$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.5478052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Arkansas Razorbacks52c571.88$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.524847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c354.88$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.5831448.7%153 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Vanderbilt Commodores26c303.03$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.330152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Arkansas Razorbacks54c284.37$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4914459%85 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Vanderbilt Commodores51c281.83$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.737452.7%39 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x641a…e1a5backed Arkansas Razorbacks52c228.99$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Arkansas Razorbacks52c215.4$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.391,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vanderbilt Commodores46c212.92$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.941,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked Vanderbilt Commodores49c202.3$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1314051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Arkansas Razorbacks51c194.36$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2416253.1%86 W · 76 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks52c190.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3550548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ac…b988backed Arkansas Razorbacks53c168.26$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.081050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c156.29$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5846246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks53c155.61$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1411741.9%49 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Arkansas Razorbacks79c126.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.358754%47 W · 40 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Vanderbilt Commodores42c113.36$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.354,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb43e…fecfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks53c109.04$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Arkansas Razorbacks50c99.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5631647.8%151 W · 165 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6132…2e70backed Arkansas Razorbacks53c93.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.951942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Arkansas Razorbacks51c87.22$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7462451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks54c78.77$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9930652%159 W · 147 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Arkansas Razorbacks53c77.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.358361.4%51 W · 32 L+9.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Arkansas Razorbacks52c76.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3160954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ba…8497backed Vanderbilt Commodores49c70.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.696048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks52c66.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0358652.9%310 W · 276 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Arkansas Razorbacks54c64.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7532652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d94…954ebacked Vanderbilt Commodores48c61.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.742564%16 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Arkansas Razorbacks57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.81,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Arkansas Razorbacks50c59.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7413356.4%75 W · 58 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Arkansas Razorbacks58c56.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9557655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Vanderbilt Commodores38c52.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8415238.8%59 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf10e…4c13backed Arkansas Razorbacks51c43.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.145457.4%31 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0275…596dbacked Vanderbilt Commodores49c42.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.821442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7307…b257backed Arkansas Razorbacks50c39.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.832352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c38.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8829650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f4…a99dbacked Vanderbilt Commodores51c38.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa96b…7d92backed Vanderbilt Commodores48c37.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.847236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas Razorbacks53c36.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.353,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Vanderbilt Commodores45c34.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Arkansas Razorbacks53c33.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5817258.7%101 W · 71 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7d4…b415backed Arkansas Razorbacks52c29.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec2c…19f8backed Vanderbilt Commodores48c29.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Arkansas Razorbacks70c29.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.982,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Arkansas Razorbacks51c29.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.55954.2%32 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked Arkansas Razorbacks53c29.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.773161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x978f…e14dbacked Vanderbilt Commodores48c21.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…c458backed Vanderbilt Commodores50c21.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Vanderbilt Commodores50c20.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Arkansas Razorbacks53c19.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.321668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.