World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3235e2b07ab8df81e22f282f0cd272ae0fde8bb05e4f4ae6e11edc72f4fb4f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,036$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 72c | 1,299$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.27 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,270$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.11 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 80c | 780.69$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 466.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes | 41c | 395.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 333.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 22c | 290.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 278.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 232.73$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed Yes | 25c | 212$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 186.02$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes | 36c | 179.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 170.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 166.6$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 27c | 165$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 161.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 159.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 156.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 14c | 146.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 116.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 73c | 113.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 20c | 107.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 17c | 90.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 88.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 20c | 88.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 87.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 73c | 85.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 84.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 17c | 84.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 21c | 80.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 24c | 78.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 29c | 74.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 70.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 20c | 69.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 73c | 68.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 68.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 63c | 66.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 65.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 20c | 65.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 21c | 59.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 18c | 57.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes | 19c | 52.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 25c | 51.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 69c | 48.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 21c | 47.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 47.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…c6fdbacked No | 78c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…3f36backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed No | 77c | 38.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 74c | 33.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…574fbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 76c | 23.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 21.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.