TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,207

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,672 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes3c1,848$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.886126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes31c1,500$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.173834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes2c1,151$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdd…0872backed Yes7c1,137$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c1,034$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.3310043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes41c914.29$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes36c873.79$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.8639231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes23c842.86$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No71c700$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018838.6%34 W · 54 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes37c652.53$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.0823723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1558743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes39c495.1$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.889337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No62c462.51$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.6518445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes33c400$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.82729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes30c395$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.48736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c336.2$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3435258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes35c300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.51050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c288.2$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c273.07$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No69c272$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3210243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes40c254.29$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3313348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No77c250$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.57450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No67c239.19$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0812055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc976…8bd5backed No64c212.56$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes13c204.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3752850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.625234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No69c196$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7617952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c194.48$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8615036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ba…1deabacked No58c193.83$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c185.97$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9732639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c176.5$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2423459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes15c166$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.97526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No60c163.85$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4146330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c161.93$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4721844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c153.36$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3823551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No57c153.25$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.362075%15 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes16c152$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3226632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2112816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No59c140$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.413268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes37c135.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3612055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes38c132.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.881758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No68c129$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2813243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce51…8d4cbacked Yes33c126.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No59c126.59$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.13551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes31c126$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9713646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes32c125.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4716934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No61c113.96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.173743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7948…90cabacked Yes33c113.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No61c112.5$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+44.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c112$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.831,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes40c109.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No62c102.01$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0721854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No66c100.67$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.313174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.252347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.442751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No67c99.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.991060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No69c94.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.175855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes34c90.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.65843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c90.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9936055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes47c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.255427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No57c87.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.413357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No47c84.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.082161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes46c83.33$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No77c81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6311839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.97030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes44c76.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.328236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No59c76.07$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.94742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes31c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes46c73.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+121.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3114…eaaabacked Yes31c73.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.681225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No69c73.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.684839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No72c72.08$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4614454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No73c67.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.274979.6%39 W · 10 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No69c66.16$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.512050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c65.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2415766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c64.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4218035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes30c61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.471526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.623044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No70c59.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.15464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No62c59.59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.893562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x884c…2ee9backed Yes37c55.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes30c55.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5212238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes38c51.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No57c50.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.94753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes26c50.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1210039%39 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c50.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.582166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes46c50.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.155149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes50c50.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0814753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205066%33 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.54344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.754564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed No58c47.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.994341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3d…a3b8backed Yes43c46.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.