TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,997
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,997 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes34c3,778$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.323723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes33c2,836$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.3810043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c1,298$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.8412055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No36c717.6$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.6214521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes24c642.68$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.039337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No67c600$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.57450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes28c592.09$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes28c566.46$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.7412040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3408838.6%34 W · 54 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No17c452.79$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.075127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c408.46$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes34c400$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26418445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c378.87$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes31c369.21$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5113348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c336.2$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c335.65$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7839231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No54c295.62$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7312055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes22c290$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.86126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No38c288.08$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.823551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No42c287.59$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5421844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes28c286.27$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.498736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No11c280.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.792751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes38c271.57$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.851216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No69c269.43$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.323174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c267.73$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6744138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes45c265.06$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.910629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No29c247.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6544428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No78c247.5$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4517952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No9c242.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.841855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes37c240.89$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.254831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c231.3$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No66c228.38$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.331050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c214.43$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8623459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes27c204.6$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.734341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d1…e5c8backed No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No67c196.3$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8113646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes29c192.11$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.119020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No80c180$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1446533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x846b…63b6backed No17c178.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No47c165.17$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.342075%15 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No19c160.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.112128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes20c155.7$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1616934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-78%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No38c149.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.023551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No80c147$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4213357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c133.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked No69c130.43$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No65c129$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6413243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes32c128.29$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7518158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes33c128.29$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.474555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No72c122.96$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4232354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No9c122.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick66cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No78c115.23$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No70c113.46$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0811045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes21c112.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1212816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c108.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.859160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes32c104.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.038236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No12c103.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes27c102.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.58937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes26c99.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.994953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes20c99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.21018.9%9 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid+115.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x232a…4895backed Yes21c95.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+92.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No12c86.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.197517.3%13 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c86.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3823044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.711442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes23c79.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No71c79.28$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.143562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c76.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.661,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes35c74.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7410030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3114…eaaabacked Yes35c73.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.541225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No75c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.76043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74dc…c70dbacked No74c67.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes25c67.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.361145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c65.31$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.415766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b72…9a6bbacked No77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x262f…2198backed No79c63.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes26c63.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+121.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes30c62.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.555149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No18c61.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9916850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591c…619fbacked No80c60.78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes23c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+50.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7323…1affbacked No69c57.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.142365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1412238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes36c55.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.441747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes21c55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.454418.2%8 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No73c54.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes30c51.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.274753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No68c50.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4627438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3116738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364436.4%16 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.56224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b4…2df7backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.58235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98df…7870backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.