World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1164d7ea3fbd3b310a61453d5d6f47268003c39c362873ec81e98d89989adc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 3,778$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.3 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 2,836$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.38 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 1,298$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.84 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 717.6$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.62 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 24c | 642.68$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.03 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 600$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes | 28c | 592.09$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 566.46$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.74 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 17c | 452.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 408.46$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 378.87$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.51 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 369.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.51 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 336.2$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 335.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.78 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 54c | 295.62$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.73 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 290$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.8 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 288.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 287.59$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 28c | 286.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.49 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 11c | 280.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 38c | 271.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 69c | 269.43$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.32 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 267.73$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.67 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 265.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 247.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 247.5$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.45 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 9c | 242.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 37c | 240.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 231.3$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.73 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 228.38$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 214.43$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 27c | 204.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.73 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 196.3$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 29c | 192.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.11 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 80c | 180$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 17c | 178.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 47c | 165.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 19c | 160.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 20c | 155.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 38c | 149.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 80c | 147$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 133.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 69c | 130.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 129$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 128.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 128.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 122.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 9c | 122.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 78c | 115.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 70c | 113.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 112.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 108.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 104.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 12c | 103.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 102.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 20c | 99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 12c | 86.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 86.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 23c | 79.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 79.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 76.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 74.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3114…eaaabacked Yes | 35c | 73.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…c70dbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 25c | 67.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 65.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…2198backed No | 79c | 63.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 26c | 63.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 30c | 62.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 18c | 61.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked No | 80c | 60.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7323…1affbacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 54.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 30c | 51.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 50.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…2df7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…7870backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.