Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34fc675a6dd1583002d6c4b7e045a6d2bfae215b524eb1b246cca03fc3a45c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x890a…ea10backed Yes | 0c | 14,351$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,902$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.04 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 1,489$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.17 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 54c | 1,200$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.1 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 711$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.32 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 554.7$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 498.11$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.48 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 496.83$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 402.22$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.33 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 345.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 316.52$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked Yes | 46c | 311.06$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 54c | 291.65$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.57 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 56c | 274.63$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 55c | 264.41$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 233.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 45c | 200.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 198.47$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 23c | 191.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 55c | 178.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 57c | 166.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…7cb3backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 55c | 148.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 143$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 56c | 138.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 137.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 39c | 131.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 61c | 127.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 78c | 126.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 108.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 44c | 102$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 47c | 98.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 89.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 56c | 86.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 44c | 84.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 48c | 82.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 41c | 77.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 61c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 68.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…62b5backed Yes | 47c | 68.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 66c | 65.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 53.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 48.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 40c | 47.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 45.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 47c | 41.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 47c | 38.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 44c | 37.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 59c | 36.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 41c | 36.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 49c | 34.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 40c | 32.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 57c | 30.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 30.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 57c | 28.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…4c30backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 56c | 27.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 26.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 46c | 24.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 58c | 24.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 24.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 47c | 23.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed No | 64c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.