Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe1b6be90e340f8300ffc3e0c2e54717b674542967304da23c6e07a8d8a50257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x890a…ea10backed No | 0c | 6,653$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 1,209$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.92 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,112$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 4c | 849.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 71c | 352.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 333.46$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 312.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 279.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.91 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 264.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 260.42$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 232.47$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 71c | 221.18$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.83 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 216.79$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.43 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 213.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 6c | 181.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 71c | 180.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 163.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 150.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 118.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 117.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 32c | 111.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked No | 62c | 110.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 105$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 92.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…b42abacked Yes | 42c | 82.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 48c | 65.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 70c | 55.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 75c | 53.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 76c | 52.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 49.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed Yes | 28c | 48.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 31c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 30c | 44.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 42.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 70c | 40.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 63c | 31.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 68c | 30.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 29.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 69c | 27.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 69c | 25.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 73c | 21.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 70c | 20.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 18.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 71c | 18.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 17.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 69c | 15.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.