MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa36a3275103bc6172d4a28de890c3513bb5317c00b48bbf56fe376f9719a7cb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Washington Nationals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 1,175$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.79 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 59c | 1,031$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 60c | 827.01$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 550.02$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 60c | 467.5$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Athletics | 60c | 372.75$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.05 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 342$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Athletics | 60c | 165.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Athletics | 60c | 82.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 74.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…9689backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 62.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 60c | 48.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 46.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Athletics | 59c | 26.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Athletics | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.