TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Washington Nationals, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$844,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$779,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $844,131 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 273 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d1a…0df6backed Washington Nationals49c111,996$55,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,157.1515451.9%80 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Washington Nationals51c107,032$54,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,586.241,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics59c82,079$48,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,577.0610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…b9f8backed Washington Nationals52c80,803$41,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,949.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals44c79,178$35,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,216.874,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Washington Nationals0c74,282$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5610547.6%50 W · 55 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics49c67,591$33,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,354.284,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics48c64,537$31,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,251.8111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Washington Nationals51c50,000$25,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,499.922050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Washington Nationals51c38,909$19,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,9551,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Athletics49c28,988$14,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,698.2792054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics50c25,603$12,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,781.385,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Athletics55c23,904$13,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,831.7698149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Athletics51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,80033852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics50c19,039$9,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,605.422,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed Washington Nationals52c18,981$9,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,87023255.6%129 W · 103 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics49c18,291$8,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,392.383,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88f1…b325backed Athletics49c17,959$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,159.182669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Athletics49c15,000$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6501,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Athletics49c14,680$7,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,486.871650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics50c9,070$4,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,561.084,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics49c8,775$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,475.326,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e13…3035backed Washington Nationals6c8,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.983132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics54c6,745$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,069.948,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb5…d57abacked Athletics51c6,694$3,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,265.7721644.9%97 W · 119 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Athletics50c6,669$3,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.021,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8239…d9a3backed Athletics50c5,997$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,008.478166.7%54 W · 27 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Washington Nationals1c5,983$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559828.6%28 W · 70 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Washington Nationals27c5,764$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.8785645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics49c5,648$2,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,865.471,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Athletics55c5,000$2,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,268.3548451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b1…d21fbacked Athletics51c4,853$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.947642.1%32 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Athletics50c4,095$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.551,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Washington Nationals2c4,090$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.838515.3%13 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Athletics49c3,963$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.9773949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Athletics50c3,895$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.7629147.1%137 W · 154 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Athletics47c3,833$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.6677647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Washington Nationals20c3,645$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.0295045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics50c3,370$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.566,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics50c3,115$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.632,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Washington Nationals48c2,730$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.9119250%96 W · 96 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Athletics49c2,535$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.8544945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd47d…322bbacked Washington Nationals48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20013552.6%71 W · 64 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Washington Nationals50c2,205$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.519951.8%103 W · 96 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Washington Nationals3c2,133$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2937032.7%121 W · 249 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4b6…5858backed Washington Nationals5c2,100$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Washington Nationals3c2,020$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.641,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Athletics51c2,018$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.181,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd255…4676backed Athletics50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0007852.6%41 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Washington Nationals52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04032850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Athletics48c2,000$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.9916848.2%81 W · 87 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Washington Nationals52c1,888$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.5219453.6%104 W · 90 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Athletics49c1,887$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.471,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics51c1,770$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.752,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Athletics49c1,742$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.4269453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Athletics50c1,694$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.341,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Athletics51c1,600$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.321449.5%106 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Athletics51c1,593$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.556344.4%28 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Washington Nationals50c1,555$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.51,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Washington Nationals50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75061947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3572…9d39backed Washington Nationals52c1,490$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.83751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Washington Nationals6c1,434$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610625.5%27 W · 79 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Washington Nationals48c1,280$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.5612253.3%65 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Athletics52c1,242$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.321,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Athletics50c1,176$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.1364452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Athletics49c1,025$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.8251545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Athletics49c1,021$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.718646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Athletics49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4139953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Athletics50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50032850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Athletics50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Athletics48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Athletics52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48016753.9%90 W · 77 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5455…8b2abacked Athletics54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Athletics51c980.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.438551.4%198 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Athletics49c910$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.16855.9%38 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics50c896$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4484,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Washington Nationals49c883.4$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.871,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Washington Nationals32c882.12$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.5614328.7%41 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b89…baa4backed Washington Nationals12c876.19$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Washington Nationals2c837.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Washington Nationals51c811.93$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0116845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Washington Nationals52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41627552.4%144 W · 131 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb81…1f15backed Athletics52c799.99$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.9912448.4%60 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee2…e88fbacked Athletics49c769.62$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.516643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed Washington Nationals52c769.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007564%48 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals11c737.62$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Washington Nationals19c645.05$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.911752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Athletics49c636.73$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.7318649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Washington Nationals50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30029344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics49c594.39$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.141,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Athletics50c588.52$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.9851547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Washington Nationals53c535.42$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.772142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb6…a2fcbacked Washington Nationals12c533.51$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.697514.7%11 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Athletics49c513.43$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.8561450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…9dcdbacked Washington Nationals52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Athletics57c473.67$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.3257758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf903…de2fbacked Washington Nationals13c461.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Washington Nationals51c431.37$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22032157%183 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Washington Nationals13c425.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Washington Nationals50c420$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.426049.6%129 W · 131 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.