TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$292,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$292,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,313 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Under51c240,695$123,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,287.6543647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over49c168,888$82,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,132.881,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over49c36,721$17,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,870.554,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Under51c20,500$10,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,45527452.6%144 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over48c18,573$8,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,715.5211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Over48c10,417$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.6612343.1%53 W · 70 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Over48c9,983$4,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,191.2636246.1%167 W · 195 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under51c8,396$4,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,281.963,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over49c7,500$3,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8251,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over49c5,653$2,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8876,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Over48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Under53c4,717$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50039047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Over49c4,306$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.9377647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over49c4,086$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.14,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over51c3,006$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.0210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656a…6077backed Under48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.953545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under51c2,727$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.771,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over49c2,485$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.521,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over48c2,359$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.025,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under51c1,063$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.1368053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over49c1,045$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.882,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Under41c912.01$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.9314328.7%41 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over49c833.09$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.882,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Over49c660.05$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.8551545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over48c500$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.88,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Over49c409.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.6561450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Under51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20047545.9%218 W · 257 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under37c362.26$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13344245.5%201 W · 241 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under49c320.71$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.73,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over48c277.5$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.932,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under57c262$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.621,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca0e…7248backed Under31c226.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under52c199.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Under53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034255.3%189 W · 153 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over71c170.48$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.884,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x202b…bd32backed Over49c163.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.277643.4%33 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over72c162$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.12,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5323…326abacked Over50c140.1$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.17234.7%25 W · 47 L-10.8wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over62c140.07$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.278,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under52c140$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.81,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under24c120.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.639,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.277050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under45c111.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under55c105.87$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2317047.1%80 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5540341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Under54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509756.7%55 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Over49c90$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Under51c89.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1129141.6%121 W · 170 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a94…a328backed Under28c71.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+37%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Under51c57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3588247.7%421 W · 461 L+3.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over48c53.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.748,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Under51c53.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.131258%181 W · 131 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over49c51.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.221,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74df…2b11backed Under51c48.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.758050%40 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Under54c48.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2495252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85fc…cf7cbacked Over48c41.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.65966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed Under50c41.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6642448.1%204 W · 220 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Over75c40.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1317550.3%88 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde36…f41cbacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2015841.8%66 W · 92 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Over54c38.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8911060.9%67 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…a760backed Over69c38.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.061225%3 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-60.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa287…416cbacked Under42c34.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcefe…7ff4backed Under52c34.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.081136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under59c34.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4674657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Over35c33.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0647446.6%221 W · 253 L+26.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Over49c30.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5319555.9%109 W · 86 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c99…d91abacked Over49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.312235.2%43 W · 79 L-10.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Under54c29.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9934255.3%189 W · 153 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x409d…8f47backed Under51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511050.9%56 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…2deebacked Over50c29.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.617952%93 W · 86 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8515050%75 W · 75 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa822…9459backed Over72c27.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.72450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237e…334cbacked Over69c26.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x205d…2ad2backed Under54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57753.2%41 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over49c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7514053.6%75 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over54c23.78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.91,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under54c22.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.170455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Over50c21.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.61,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb515…7e2bbacked Over65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over66c15.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.141,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.