MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bc4d953916a4b38a7cdaa259d5eb29552908204a3b54ac66b491857e25cf07b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 40c | 2,250$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 937.99$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 496.79$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.38 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 479.99$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.39 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 421.36$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 310.54$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.25 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 251.88$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 234.76$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.05 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Athletics | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Athletics | 34c | 114.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Washington Nationals | 16c | 105.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Athletics | 38c | 102.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Athletics | 68c | 101.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe011…159fbacked Athletics | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +93%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 86.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Washington Nationals | 23c | 85.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Athletics | 36c | 84.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 69.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 34c | 62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Athletics | 38c | 54.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Athletics | 38c | 54.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Athletics | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 44.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 36.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…b8e1backed Athletics | 38c | 29.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Athletics won
- Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.