CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HAVU (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa38fab404c755c2009b943e53f04734dd901c0b9dca4d80ce805b63bd549c749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, HAVU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked HAVU | 15c | 1,553$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.92 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 60c | 1,181$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.32 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed HAVU | 48c | 1,103$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed HAVU | 10c | 1,091$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked HAVU | 45c | 1,048$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.21 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed Ursa | 58c | 1,047$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.66 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Ursa | 54c | 763.75$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.91 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4d…c654backed Ursa | 66c | 542.77$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed HAVU | 33c | 445.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 205 | 54.1%111 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Ursa | 53c | 435.11$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed HAVU | 37c | 351.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…a306backed Ursa | 75c | 330.8$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked HAVU | 45c | 292$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.08 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked HAVU | 24c | 249.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed HAVU | 25c | 226.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 309 | 51.5%159 W · 150 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ursa | 74c | 213.88$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ursa | 70c | 191.47$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked HAVU | 12c | 186.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed HAVU | 28c | 184$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Ursa | 71c | 176.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…0852backed HAVU | 29c | 161.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 204 | 45.6%93 W · 111 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed HAVU | 18c | 136.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 390 | 38.5%150 W · 240 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed HAVU | 28c | 117.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 676 | 51.8%350 W · 326 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Ursa | 72c | 106$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa | 65c | 105.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Ursa | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Ursa | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 293 | 47.8%140 W · 153 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Ursa | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked HAVU | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 262 | 46.9%123 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c6…4fdebacked HAVU | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed HAVU | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 394 | 40.4%159 W · 235 L | +30.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…70febacked Ursa | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 366 | 45.6%167 W · 199 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed HAVU | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed HAVU | 13c | 96.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…df1dbacked HAVU | 21c | 95.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Ursa | 72c | 73.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 488 | 45.7%223 W · 265 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Ursa | 71c | 73.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Ursa | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Ursa | 56c | 56.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 172 | 57.6%99 W · 73 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked HAVU | 46c | 56.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…9defbacked HAVU | 46c | 51.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…3f58backed HAVU | 29c | 51.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7344…98f6backed HAVU | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 71c | 49.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf4…a399backed Ursa | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked HAVU | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Ursa | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Ursa | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Ursa | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Ursa | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 185 | 45.4%84 W · 101 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed HAVU | 55c | 38.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 231 | 50.6%117 W · 114 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Ursa | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…8eb1backed Ursa | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Ursa | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…ffcabacked HAVU | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…44efbacked Ursa | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Ursa | 76c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed Ursa | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Ursa | 71c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 231 | 58.4%135 W · 96 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Ursa | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Ursa | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Ursa | 57c | 18.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HAVU (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HAVU - Map 1 WinnerHAVU won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HAVU - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.