CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa39a2769a6766ddca1765d8a63fa7dd18d8bcf06d52409eba65e3ac49b1310fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-RUBYof illwill, ex-RUBY
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da8…80c3backed ex-RUBY | 49c | 1,486$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.88 | 333 | 59.8%199 W · 134 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed illwill | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed ex-RUBY | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUBY | 49c | 455$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.22 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed ex-RUBY | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…af95backed illwill | 59c | 329.48$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.58 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ex-RUBY | 60c | 224.41$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0b…f901backed ex-RUBY | 47c | 210.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 359 | 53.2%191 W · 168 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed illwill | 12c | 203.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 299 | 34.4%103 W · 196 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…3f07backed illwill | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a4…f92ebacked illwill | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…6163backed ex-RUBY | 59c | 199.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed illwill | 40c | 179.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…c4c5backed illwill | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed illwill | 26c | 149.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa91c…1de9backed illwill | 8c | 140.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ex-RUBY | 68c | 138.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked illwill | 56c | 125.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked illwill | 65c | 121.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed illwill | 35c | 113$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 29c | 105.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…9f99backed illwill | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed illwill | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked illwill | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ex-RUBY | 44c | 76.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed illwill | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2392…ed75backed illwill | 54c | 69.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…ec56backed ex-RUBY | 71c | 63.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed illwill | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…c59abacked illwill | 44c | 62.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked ex-RUBY | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 286 | 57.7%165 W · 121 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed illwill | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked illwill | 54c | 53.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d0…bf0cbacked ex-RUBY | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…54b3backed illwill | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ex-RUBY | 64c | 44.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6005…9625backed ex-RUBY | 61c | 37.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed illwill | 56c | 35.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed ex-RUBY | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed illwill | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 280 | 42.5%119 W · 161 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…e88cbacked illwill | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed illwill | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsex-RUBY won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winnerex-RUBY won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5)ex-RUBY won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.