CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9ab50f5cddb962f5abda9e66e1ad458cfc9dc617582d926c265fd3e81b82a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-RUBYof illwill, ex-RUBY
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked illwill | 24c | 1,631$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.9 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…47fcbacked illwill | 51c | 928.84$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.69 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked ex-RUBY | 45c | 705.42$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.98 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…afd7backed illwill | 42c | 556.82$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.38 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed illwill | 6c | 351$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed illwill | 37c | 314.86$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ex-RUBY | 56c | 247.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed ex-RUBY | 78c | 186.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed illwill | 51c | 182.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked illwill | 36c | 161.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked illwill | 20c | 159.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b7…cfa7backed ex-RUBY | 60c | 153.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6005…9625backed illwill | 18c | 116.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked ex-RUBY | 45c | 110.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked ex-RUBY | 52c | 83.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 19c | 70.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed ex-RUBY | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 932 | 61.7%575 W · 357 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e5…c8d1backed illwill | 19c | 57.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked illwill | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed illwill | 28c | 47.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed ex-RUBY | 74c | 40.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2392…ed75backed ex-RUBY | 69c | 40.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d0…bf0cbacked ex-RUBY | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked ex-RUBY | 67c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked ex-RUBY | 59c | 25.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed ex-RUBY | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked ex-RUBY | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 446 | 75.3%336 W · 110 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…e88cbacked ex-RUBY | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsex-RUBY won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winnerex-RUBY won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5)ex-RUBY won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.